Thanksgiving is arguably one of the best holidays of the year. We get to make memories with friends and family, eat delicious food, and most importantly….we get a triple header of football! Last week, I highlighted CHI @ ATL and KC @ LAC as games to target for high scores, fantasy points, etc. The Bears and Falcons got it done, scoring 51 points between them. The Chiefs and Chargers also got it done by an even larger margin scoring 57 points on Sunday Night Football. We went two for two and with two more picks this week, we’ll hope to replicate that success on this holiday weekend.
BUF (-9) @ DET over/under 54
The first matchup is a Thanksgiving treat! The Buffalo Bills stay in Detroit this week to take on the Lions who are fresh off of their third straight win. This is easily the highest over/under on the week and I’ve got a handful of data points that should make you feel as good about this matchup as our Thanksgiving feast is going to make me feel on Thursday. Both teams rank inside the top seven in total points scored on offense with the Bills coming in second only behind the Kansas City Chiefs. On the other side of the ball, the Lions rank second to last in points allowed, giving up 28 each week. Buffalo’s defense has slipped down the leaderboards amid their recent struggles, as they are 16th in overall defensive efficiency ranking 20th against the pass since week 8.
We’re getting the two things we enjoy; good offenses that score points and bad defenses. The Lions are also hitting their over 70% of the time this season, which is second in the NFL. To put a cherry on top of this matchup, we’re in a dome this week. I’ve got a few plays coming out of this one that I would feel very confident in going into this week’s slate of games.
At QB, I’m obviously high on Josh Allen this week. On the year, only Patrick Mahomes averages more fantasy points per game and that’s by a narrow margin (25.8 vs. 26.9). The Chiefs plays the Rams this week and given LA’s spiral, Kansas City likely won’t need to press very hard for a win.
Play: Josh Allen > The Field
Stefon Diggs leads the league in Half-PPR fantasy points scored this season among wide receivers. Given all the positive indicators that favor the Bills matchups this week, I feel very good about this being a ceiling game for the Buffalo offense and Stefon Diggs.
Play: Stefon Diggs > The Field
Detroit has scored 31 points in their last two outings and in those games, Amon-Ra St. Brown has brought in 17 of 19 passes thrown his way for 195 yards. He has been the WR10 over the last two weeks. The thing missing from that equation is touchdowns. I’m thankful for those catches and yards but really hoping for some positive touchdown regression this week! I’m pairing St. Brown against Justin Jefferson this week which seems like a terrible idea. However, Jefferson is dealing with a mild-turf toe injury and New England is the second worst matchup in the NFL for wide receivers this season.
Play: Amon-Ra St. Brown > Justin Jefferson
LAC (-3.5) @ ARI over/under 47.5
The second matchup is between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Arizona Cardinals. The over under is the second highest on the week behind only the Bills and Lions game at 47.5. The Chargers are sixth in the NFL in passing yards and Herbert just got Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back in week 11. We know LA can get it done on offense, what we like here is the defense or lack thereof. The Chargers rank 23rd in defensive efficiency over the past four weeks and Arizona hasn’t been much better in that span, ranking 29th in the same metric. Offensively, the Cardinals may be without Kyler Murray as he recovers from his hamstring injury, but Colt McCoy helped Arizona put up 27 on the Rams two weeks ago. They should be able to hold up their end of the bargain on this line (~22 points).
Both of these teams have faired well against their overs this season as well. Arizona is beating their over 60% of the time this year and that’s good for fifth in the NFL, while the Chargers beat their over 50% of the time which puts them 10th in the league.
For this matchup, I’ve got a couple of plays I’d feel very good about in week 12. The game has many of the ingredients we’re looking for with two struggling defenses and offenses with plenty of fire power.
While Herbert hasn’t delivered on his 2022 promise, his receiving corps has been marred by injury this season. Things are beginning to trend up with Kennan Allen playing the majority of week 11 and Mike Williams making it back out on the field as well. I like Herbert over Joe Burrow who faces the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have the second-ranked defense in terms of efficiency over the past four weeks and are the top 10 in sacks. The Bengals have allowed the fourth most sacks so far in 2022. This feels like it may be a floor game for Burrow.
Play: Justin Herbert > Joe Burrow
Since his return, DeAndre Hopkins ranks seventh in the NFL in Half-PPR fantasy points per game. Hopkins also gets the fifth-best WR/CB matchup grade on the week against the Chargers defense. I'm pairing Hopkins against Tee Higgins this week in what figures to be a low-scoring, low-passing volume day for the Bengals against Tennessee. The Titans are the fourth-worst matchup for wide receivers this year, allowing just 33.6 points per game to the entire position group.
Play: DeAndre Hopkins > Tee Higgins
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