After a 15-10 start, I’ve cleaned up my act quite a bit and turned things around going 6-0 across weeks four and five. Earlier in the week, I highlighted a handful of games to look at if you’re looking for explosive offenses, bad defenses, and the potential for tons of fantasy points scored. The first game I covered in that article was BUF @ KC and that’s precisely where I’m starting today for a couple of head-to-head matchups.
Josh Allen vs. Jalen Hurts (+3.5)
There has been no better quarterback in the NFL this season for fantasy football (arguably for the NFL) than Josh Allen. He’s averaged 30.1 fantasy points per game, three more than any other quarterback in the league. Third on that list is a player Allen is matched up against on TopProp in Jalen Hurts. Hurts is averaging 26.2 fantasy points per game. Not bad! However, the Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys and that game has an implied point total of just 42.5, 11 points lower than the Bills and Chiefs matchup. The Cowboy also rank 25th in plays per game, averaging just 58. With Cooper Rush under center, they’ve been looking to control the clock and let their defense dictate the outcome of games.
My play in this head-to-head is Josh Allen despite Jalen Hurts getting +3.5 points. The Bills get the higher implied points total and for good reason. The Chiefs have the top ranked offense in terms of points scored and should force Buffalo to play a full four quarters and put-up points throughout their entire matchup.
Play: Josh Allen vs. Jalen Hurts (+3.5)
Travis Kelce vs. Mark Andrews
In this next head-to-head, I’m looking at the two best tight ends in the NFL in Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews (don’t even come at me with your Taysom Hill propaganda!). I’ve talked at length about the Chiefs matchup this week so I’ll instead jump to the Ravens matchup with the Giants. The implied point total in that one is 44 and I don’t love where the Giants sit in pace of play (20th in the NFL). New York is also passing at some of the lowest rates in the NFL which won’t help the scoreboard in their matchup with Baltimore. When the Giants are trailing by four or more points, they’re passing 61% of the time which is 9 points below league average. When the Giants are leading by four or more points, they’re passing 21% of the time and that’s 30 points below league average. They want to run the ball as much as possible and they have Saquon Barkley which makes sense.
In this head-to-head, I'm taking Travis Kelce in an even matchup with Mark Andrews. Kelce not only gets the higher implied point total (53.5 versus 44), but he’s off to a better start in 2022 ranked first among tight ends and averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game (four more than Andrews). Additionally, the Giants should ensure the score and offensive play counts stay low on both sides of the ball which will also hinder Andrews.
Play: Travis Kelce vs. Mark Andrews
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